In the first half of 2022, the hot-rolled market will be strong and then weak. The average price has risen from 4,781 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 5,345 yuan/ton on April 6, an increase of 564 yuan/ton. After reaching a high point at the beginning of the second quarter, it began to fall, falling to the current 4,293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,052 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of supply, in the first half of the year, under the influence of the Winter Olympics/Paralympics/Two Sessions, the production reduction was stronger than that of the same period last year, and the impact of maintenance from January to June reached 6.5 million tons. From the perspective of demand, the average monthly demand in the first half of the year was 20 million tons per month, a year-on-year decrease of 6.23%, and the price support was average.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, steel mills will do a series of production control and production reduction work around ensuring profits. New production capacity will be added in the first half of the year, and the new one will be confirmed in the second half of the year. . In terms of demand, construction machinery, automobiles, home appliances, shipbuilding and other industries are expected to perform poorly in terms of consumption. In the first half of the year, there was a clear downward trend, and the pressure was great.
For the second half of the year, we need to focus on two points: 1. The upper-end supply and demand balance is adjusted by production restrictions, and the overall adjustment will be maintained at the current level; the lower-end balance will form a new balance due to the decline in supply, and resolve the first three months due to the consumption-end restraint The negative impact brought by it will maintain a relative balance of supply and demand in the fourth quarter; in the second and third quarters, it is expected to be in the supply chain, and in the fourth quarter, it will gradually switch to the consumer side. The main indicator is the level of inventory.
